Compile a large enough database of historical events that nobody could memorize more than a fraction of it. For the test, choose a few events at random, describe the initial conditions and ask the candidate to predict the outcomes.
Though I think that the condition that ‘nobody could memorize more than a fraction of it’ is actually quite hard to meet. E.g. legal training seems analogous, and lawyers seem to be able to remember a lot of examples.
If the corpus could be kept secret or ever changing that might help.
When I was thinking of something similar, I had a concern about the task length. E.g. will this result only in relatively short or simple tasks?
Compile a large enough database of historical events that nobody could memorize more than a fraction of it. For the test, choose a few events at random, describe the initial conditions and ask the candidate to predict the outcomes.
This is a good idea.
Though I think that the condition that ‘nobody could memorize more than a fraction of it’ is actually quite hard to meet. E.g. legal training seems analogous, and lawyers seem to be able to remember a lot of examples.
If the corpus could be kept secret or ever changing that might help.
When I was thinking of something similar, I had a concern about the task length. E.g. will this result only in relatively short or simple tasks?
That would actually work.