Religious attendance is down already, ideally to zero. What are the long term effects of that?
Brainstorm:
Permanently weaker social ties, especially among the elderly and rural.
-> More depression, suicide, addiction
Longer time to notice that someone has died and for the body to be discovered (for suicides or otherwise).
Families that rely on church assistance go hungry, leading to permanent physical and mental deficits for children.
Churches receive fewer donations (both because of lack of physical presence and the recession), some are forced to close.
I wanted to make a numerical prediction for this but couldn’t find numbers on # of churches over time except for LDS, which has been growing.
I expect LDS to make it through this pretty well, possibly even strengthened, because they’ve led their members to prepare for this and because I expect them to institute social reinforcement over distance.
Speed up of the transition to digital services. Gains reduce but do not entirely disappear when social distancing is lifted.
Membership takes a permanent hit, faster than counterfactually.
Religious attendance is down already, ideally to zero. What are the long term effects of that?
Brainstorm:
Permanently weaker social ties, especially among the elderly and rural.
-> More depression, suicide, addiction
Longer time to notice that someone has died and for the body to be discovered (for suicides or otherwise).
Families that rely on church assistance go hungry, leading to permanent physical and mental deficits for children.
Churches receive fewer donations (both because of lack of physical presence and the recession), some are forced to close.
I wanted to make a numerical prediction for this but couldn’t find numbers on # of churches over time except for LDS, which has been growing.
I expect LDS to make it through this pretty well, possibly even strengthened, because they’ve led their members to prepare for this and because I expect them to institute social reinforcement over distance.
Speed up of the transition to digital services. Gains reduce but do not entirely disappear when social distancing is lifted.
Membership takes a permanent hit, faster than counterfactually.