Feels empirically true. I remember cases where I thought about a memory X and was initially uncertain about some aspect of it, but then when I think about it later it feels either true or false in my memory, so I have to be like, “well no, I know that I was 50⁄50 on this when the memory was more recent, so that’s what my probability should be now, even though it doesn’t feel like it anymore”.
Seems like the fact that I put about a 50% probability on the thing survived (easy/clear enough to remember), but the reasons did not, so the probability no longer feels accurate.
Feels empirically true. I remember cases where I thought about a memory X and was initially uncertain about some aspect of it, but then when I think about it later it feels either true or false in my memory, so I have to be like, “well no, I know that I was 50⁄50 on this when the memory was more recent, so that’s what my probability should be now, even though it doesn’t feel like it anymore”.
Seems like the fact that I put about a 50% probability on the thing survived (easy/clear enough to remember), but the reasons did not, so the probability no longer feels accurate.