I think at this point the questions have become (a) “how many bits of evidence does it take to raise ‘someone is lying’ to prominence as a hypothesis?” and (b) “how many bits of evidence can I assign to ‘someone is lying’ after evaluating the probability of this story based on what I know?”
I believe your argument is that a > b (specifically, that a is large and b is small), where the post asserts that a < b. I’m not going to say that’s unreasonable, given that all we know is what Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote, but often actual experience has much more detail than any feasible summary—I’m willing to grant him the benefit of the doubt, given that his tiny note of discord got the right answer in this instance.
My argument is what I stated, nothing more. Namely that there is nothing unreasonable about assuming that a perfect stranger that you’re having a casual conversation with is not trying to deceive you. I already laid out my reasoning for it. I’m not sure what more I can add.
I think at this point the questions have become (a) “how many bits of evidence does it take to raise ‘someone is lying’ to prominence as a hypothesis?” and (b) “how many bits of evidence can I assign to ‘someone is lying’ after evaluating the probability of this story based on what I know?”
I believe your argument is that a > b (specifically, that a is large and b is small), where the post asserts that a < b. I’m not going to say that’s unreasonable, given that all we know is what Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote, but often actual experience has much more detail than any feasible summary—I’m willing to grant him the benefit of the doubt, given that his tiny note of discord got the right answer in this instance.
My argument is what I stated, nothing more. Namely that there is nothing unreasonable about assuming that a perfect stranger that you’re having a casual conversation with is not trying to deceive you. I already laid out my reasoning for it. I’m not sure what more I can add.
DP