it completely forgets all the context and social network.
TBH I think this works out fairly heavily in favour of the future, I expect that the utility per unit time of future life is significantly higher than what we have today, even taking into account loss of social network. Of course this asymmetry goes away if you persuade your friends and family to sign up too.
I suppose your mileage may reasonably vary depending on how much of a nerd you are and how good your present day relationships are.
Personally, if cryonics was 100% and a positive future to wake up in was also 100% (both of which are false by a large margin), I would go to the future right now and start enjoying the delights it has to offer. I have spent some time thinking about how good the best possible human life is. It’s somewhat hard to tell as it is an underresearched area, but I think it’s probably 2-10 times better in utility than the best we have today.
I expect that the utility per unit time of future life is significantly higher than what we have today, even taking into account loss of social network.
Perhaps, but that’s highly debatable. Anyway, my main point was that the two scenarios (bullet / cryonics) are not anywhere near being mathematically equivalent, there are a lot of differences, both in favor and against cryonics, and pretending they don’t exist is not helping. If anything, it just reinforces the Hollywood stereotype of the “vulkan rationalist” who doesn’t have any feeling or emotion, and that basically fails to understand what makes life worth being lived. And that’s pretty harmful from a PR point of view.
Of course this asymmetry goes away if you persuade your friends and family to sign up too.
Even then it’s not the case, unless everyone dies and is frozen at the same time. If I sign to cryonics, die tomorrow and am resurrected in 200 years, and my 4 yo niece signs to cryonics when she’s adult and dies in 80 years and is resurrected too in 200 years, she’ll still have grown without her uncle, and I would still have missed her childhood—in fact, she would likely not even remember me, and the 84-yo person she would be wouldn’t be much like the one I remembered.
I think it’s probably 2-10 times better in utility than the best we have today.
Perhaps. There is a lot of uncertainty about that (which compounds with the odds of cryonics working at all), and while there are possible futures in which it’s the case, it’s not certain at all—especially from someone from now.
But you also forget a very important point—utility for other people. Perhaps I would be happier in the future than now—but to take the same example, my niece would still miss her uncle (and that would be even much worse if I were a father, not “just” an uncle), and less utility in her childhood because of it. And I value her life more than my own.
TBH I think this works out fairly heavily in favour of the future, I expect that the utility per unit time of future life is significantly higher than what we have today, even taking into account loss of social network. Of course this asymmetry goes away if you persuade your friends and family to sign up too.
I suppose your mileage may reasonably vary depending on how much of a nerd you are and how good your present day relationships are.
Personally, if cryonics was 100% and a positive future to wake up in was also 100% (both of which are false by a large margin), I would go to the future right now and start enjoying the delights it has to offer. I have spent some time thinking about how good the best possible human life is. It’s somewhat hard to tell as it is an underresearched area, but I think it’s probably 2-10 times better in utility than the best we have today.
Perhaps, but that’s highly debatable. Anyway, my main point was that the two scenarios (bullet / cryonics) are not anywhere near being mathematically equivalent, there are a lot of differences, both in favor and against cryonics, and pretending they don’t exist is not helping. If anything, it just reinforces the Hollywood stereotype of the “vulkan rationalist” who doesn’t have any feeling or emotion, and that basically fails to understand what makes life worth being lived. And that’s pretty harmful from a PR point of view.
Even then it’s not the case, unless everyone dies and is frozen at the same time. If I sign to cryonics, die tomorrow and am resurrected in 200 years, and my 4 yo niece signs to cryonics when she’s adult and dies in 80 years and is resurrected too in 200 years, she’ll still have grown without her uncle, and I would still have missed her childhood—in fact, she would likely not even remember me, and the 84-yo person she would be wouldn’t be much like the one I remembered.
Perhaps. There is a lot of uncertainty about that (which compounds with the odds of cryonics working at all), and while there are possible futures in which it’s the case, it’s not certain at all—especially from someone from now.
But you also forget a very important point—utility for other people. Perhaps I would be happier in the future than now—but to take the same example, my niece would still miss her uncle (and that would be even much worse if I were a father, not “just” an uncle), and less utility in her childhood because of it. And I value her life more than my own.