If rationality was the most important component of individual level success- the Ultimate Power- then you’d expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality. Heck, even if it wasn’t, you’d still expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality. Nobody would claim that height is the most important thing in playing basketball, but pretty much all the most successful basketball players have above average height.
Actually, a lot of people would claim that height is the most important thing in playing basketball. Average NBA players are 78.9 inches tall. Height is roughly normally distributed, this puts them at about 3 SD above mean height. They surely aren’t typically 3 SD above the mean in any trait that doesn’t correlate strongly with height, and height is less environmentally influenced (and simply simpler) than the traits it correlates with so its reasonable to assume that it is more causal of other extreme traits than the reverse.
If rationality was the most important component of individual level success- the Ultimate Power- then you’d expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality. Heck, even if it wasn’t, you’d still expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality.
Average general rationality is probably a lot less than you’d think. Domain-specific rationality is what determines the success in any particular endeavor, and rather than generating full theory of rationality, simple heuristics and lots of attemptees most likely approximate it well enough and thus produce steady amount of really succesful people.
How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?
If your respective answers aren’t “quite a lot” and “a significant fraction” then it seems like you’re neglecting the base rate. Otherwise, I’d like to know how you arrived at those estimates.
“How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?”
Precisely half of the human population has above average rationality. What’s notable about people like the Nazis is not that they weren’t x-rationalists, it’s that they were well below average.
I believe there is one NBA player shorter than the average height for Americans. His height is such a liability that his team is trying to trade him and he hasn’t played for the last nine games or so.
If rationality was the most important component of individual level success- the Ultimate Power- then you’d expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality. Heck, even if it wasn’t, you’d still expect pretty much all the most successful people to have above-average rationality. Nobody would claim that height is the most important thing in playing basketball, but pretty much all the most successful basketball players have above average height.
Actually, a lot of people would claim that height is the most important thing in playing basketball. Average NBA players are 78.9 inches tall. Height is roughly normally distributed, this puts them at about 3 SD above mean height. They surely aren’t typically 3 SD above the mean in any trait that doesn’t correlate strongly with height, and height is less environmentally influenced (and simply simpler) than the traits it correlates with so its reasonable to assume that it is more causal of other extreme traits than the reverse.
Average general rationality is probably a lot less than you’d think. Domain-specific rationality is what determines the success in any particular endeavor, and rather than generating full theory of rationality, simple heuristics and lots of attemptees most likely approximate it well enough and thus produce steady amount of really succesful people.
How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?
If your respective answers aren’t “quite a lot” and “a significant fraction” then it seems like you’re neglecting the base rate. Otherwise, I’d like to know how you arrived at those estimates.
“How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?”
Precisely half of the human population has above average rationality. What’s notable about people like the Nazis is not that they weren’t x-rationalists, it’s that they were well below average.
I believe there is one NBA player shorter than the average height for Americans. His height is such a liability that his team is trying to trade him and he hasn’t played for the last nine games or so.