>Of course there are probably even bigger risks if we simply allow unlimited engineering of these sorts of zero sum traits by parents thinking only of their own children’s success. Everyone would end up losing.
The negative consequences of a world where everybody engineers their children to be tall, charismatic, well endowed, geniuses are almost certain to be far less than the consequences of giving the government the kind of power that would allow them to ban doing this (without banning human GM outright which is clearly an even worse outcome).
I’m thinking of something like a fitness trap scenario, where competition to maximize zero sum traits degrades some other key trait in an irreversible way. Not that it would literally be irreversible, but that the degradation of such a trait (perhaps we find a gene that makes you very attractive but dumber) would make the next generation even more likely to sacrifice that key trait etc etc in a vicious cycle.
I’m thinking here of the Irish Elk, a huge species of deer whose competition for larger antler size drove it to extinction.
Though I agree with you that the danger of banning genetic modification would be much, much greater than the danger of this kind of sexual selection induced extinction.
EDIT: After reading the article I linked it looks like there is actually controversy about whether large antlers drove the Irish Elk extinct. The real cause may have been a combination of a reduction in food an predation. So perhaps that’s not the best example for the wisdom of banning zero sum trait selection.
An irish elk/peacock type scenario is pretty implausible here for a few reasons.
Firstly people care about enough different traits that an obviously bad trade like attractiveness for intelligence wouldn’t be adopted by enough people to impact the overall population.
Secondly for traits like attractiveness low mutation load is far more important than any gene variants that could present major tradeoffs. So just selecting for less mutation load will improve most of the polygenetic traits people care about.
Ultimately the polygenetic nature of traits people care the most about just doesn’t create much need or incentive for the kinds of trade offs you propose. Such tradeoffs could only ever conceivably be worthwhile in order to reach superhuman levels of intelligence (nothing analogous exists for attractiveness) which would have obvious positive externalities.
Every time I read one of Scott Alexander’s posts I lament my own writing abilities. He’s said everything I want to say about the tradeoffs in genetic engineering with fewer words and in a more comprehensible manner.
I guess my ultimate aim in writing these posts is to convince myself and others that genetic engineering is not only desirable but possible in the near future. I guess maybe what I should be focusing on is less persuasive writing and more HOW to do it.
Though part of me despairs at the possibility of us ever pursuing such a path. Cloning is banned in nearly every country in the world in which it might be possible to create clones. This is ostensibly because cloned mammals have a much higher rate of birth defects, yet so far as I can tell there is no effort being made to reduce the likelihood of such errors. Instead it seems like the current technical problems are being used as an excuse to stop research on how to make cloning safer.
>Of course there are probably even bigger risks if we simply allow unlimited engineering of these sorts of zero sum traits by parents thinking only of their own children’s success. Everyone would end up losing.
The negative consequences of a world where everybody engineers their children to be tall, charismatic, well endowed, geniuses are almost certain to be far less than the consequences of giving the government the kind of power that would allow them to ban doing this (without banning human GM outright which is clearly an even worse outcome).
I’m thinking of something like a fitness trap scenario, where competition to maximize zero sum traits degrades some other key trait in an irreversible way. Not that it would literally be irreversible, but that the degradation of such a trait (perhaps we find a gene that makes you very attractive but dumber) would make the next generation even more likely to sacrifice that key trait etc etc in a vicious cycle.
I’m thinking here of the Irish Elk, a huge species of deer whose competition for larger antler size drove it to extinction.
See here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/phenomena/2008/09/03/the-allure-of-big-antlers/
Though I agree with you that the danger of banning genetic modification would be much, much greater than the danger of this kind of sexual selection induced extinction.
EDIT: After reading the article I linked it looks like there is actually controversy about whether large antlers drove the Irish Elk extinct. The real cause may have been a combination of a reduction in food an predation. So perhaps that’s not the best example for the wisdom of banning zero sum trait selection.
An irish elk/peacock type scenario is pretty implausible here for a few reasons.
Firstly people care about enough different traits that an obviously bad trade like attractiveness for intelligence wouldn’t be adopted by enough people to impact the overall population.
Secondly for traits like attractiveness low mutation load is far more important than any gene variants that could present major tradeoffs. So just selecting for less mutation load will improve most of the polygenetic traits people care about.
Ultimately the polygenetic nature of traits people care the most about just doesn’t create much need or incentive for the kinds of trade offs you propose. Such tradeoffs could only ever conceivably be worthwhile in order to reach superhuman levels of intelligence (nothing analogous exists for attractiveness) which would have obvious positive externalities.
https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/05/04/myers-race-car-versus-the-general-fitness-factor/
Every time I read one of Scott Alexander’s posts I lament my own writing abilities. He’s said everything I want to say about the tradeoffs in genetic engineering with fewer words and in a more comprehensible manner.
I guess my ultimate aim in writing these posts is to convince myself and others that genetic engineering is not only desirable but possible in the near future. I guess maybe what I should be focusing on is less persuasive writing and more HOW to do it.
Though part of me despairs at the possibility of us ever pursuing such a path. Cloning is banned in nearly every country in the world in which it might be possible to create clones. This is ostensibly because cloned mammals have a much higher rate of birth defects, yet so far as I can tell there is no effort being made to reduce the likelihood of such errors. Instead it seems like the current technical problems are being used as an excuse to stop research on how to make cloning safer.