5. This refers to real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation). 2% is lower than the current world growth figure, and using the world growth figure would make my point stronger. But I think that 2% is a decent guess for “frontier growth”—growth occurring in the already-most-developed economies—as opposed to total world growth, which includes “catchup growth” (previously poor countries growing rapidly, such as China today).
To check my 2% guess, I downloaded this US data and looked at the annualized growth rate between 2000-2020, 2010-2020, and 2015-2020 (all using July since July was the latest 2020 point). These were 2.5%, 2.2% and 2.05% respectively.
5. This refers to real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation). 2% is lower than the current world growth figure, and using the world growth figure would make my point stronger. But I think that 2% is a decent guess for “frontier growth”—growth occurring in the already-most-developed economies—as opposed to total world growth, which includes “catchup growth” (previously poor countries growing rapidly, such as China today).
To check my 2% guess, I downloaded this US data and looked at the annualized growth rate between 2000-2020, 2010-2020, and 2015-2020 (all using July since July was the latest 2020 point). These were 2.5%, 2.2% and 2.05% respectively.