What exactly is your hypothesis? Is it something like:
P1) People are irrationally averse to actions that have a positive expected value and a low probability of success.
P2) Self-deception enables people to ignore the low probability of success.
C) Self-deception is adaptive.
I tried to test this reasoning by referencing the research that Daniel Kahneman (co-coiner of the term “planning fallacy”) has done about optimism. He has many criticisms of over-optimism among managers/executives, as well as more ordinary people (e.g. those who pursue self-employment).
However, he also notes that, for a given optimistic individual, their optimism may have a variety of personal, social, and societal benefits, ranging from good mood and health to inspiring leadership and economic innovation. He goes so far as to say, “If you are allowed one wish for your child, seriously consider wishing him or her optimism.”. (Thinking Fast and Slow, p. 255)
Altogether, I’m think I’m missing a subtlety that would enable me to deduce the circumstances in which a bias towards optimism would be beneficial. Given that, I’m unable to test your hypothesis.
What exactly is your hypothesis? Is it something like: P1) People are irrationally averse to actions that have a positive expected value and a low probability of success. P2) Self-deception enables people to ignore the low probability of success. C) Self-deception is adaptive.
I tried to test this reasoning by referencing the research that Daniel Kahneman (co-coiner of the term “planning fallacy”) has done about optimism. He has many criticisms of over-optimism among managers/executives, as well as more ordinary people (e.g. those who pursue self-employment).
However, he also notes that, for a given optimistic individual, their optimism may have a variety of personal, social, and societal benefits, ranging from good mood and health to inspiring leadership and economic innovation. He goes so far as to say, “If you are allowed one wish for your child, seriously consider wishing him or her optimism.”. (Thinking Fast and Slow, p. 255)
Altogether, I’m think I’m missing a subtlety that would enable me to deduce the circumstances in which a bias towards optimism would be beneficial. Given that, I’m unable to test your hypothesis.