My probability that (EDIT: for the model we evaluated) the base model outperforms the finetuned model (as I understand that statement) is so small that it is within the realm of probabilities that I am confused about how to reason about (i.e. model error clearly dominates). Intuitively (excluding things like model error), even 1 in a million feels like it could be too high.
My probability that the model sometimes stops talking about some capability without giving you an explicit refusal is much higher (depending on how you operationalize it, I might be effectively-certain that this is true, i.e. >99%) but this is not fixed by running evals on base models.
(Obviously there’s a much much higher probability that I’m somehow misunderstanding what you mean. E.g. maybe you’re imagining some effort to elicit capabilities with the base model (and for some reason you’re not worried about the same failure mode there), maybe you allow for SFT but not RLHF, maybe you mean just avoid the safety tuning, etc)
My probability that (EDIT: for the model we evaluated) the base model outperforms the finetuned model (as I understand that statement) is so small that it is within the realm of probabilities that I am confused about how to reason about (i.e. model error clearly dominates). Intuitively (excluding things like model error), even 1 in a million feels like it could be too high.
My probability that the model sometimes stops talking about some capability without giving you an explicit refusal is much higher (depending on how you operationalize it, I might be effectively-certain that this is true, i.e. >99%) but this is not fixed by running evals on base models.
(Obviously there’s a much much higher probability that I’m somehow misunderstanding what you mean. E.g. maybe you’re imagining some effort to elicit capabilities with the base model (and for some reason you’re not worried about the same failure mode there), maybe you allow for SFT but not RLHF, maybe you mean just avoid the safety tuning, etc)