I’m not saying that it would be impossible for us to form a better judgment in principle. I am saying that if almost all the experts can’t explain the matter properly, there is no reason to think I can do so myself—I am better off trusting their low quality judgments.
If it’s a widely studied matter (just not by me, yet) and truly ALL experts don’t seem to be able to transmit their reasons for believing things to me, then I’m going to be very skeptical that there’s anything in the field of study to learn at all, unless there’s a good argument that I should expect the field to be so enigmatic. I think I’m better off believing nothing about the topic if it’s so immune to communication.
It’s only when experts agree, and when it seems like I can in principle follow their work and understand the primary evidence, e.g. any advanced science or engineering discipline, that I can trust experts even though they’ve failed to present an easily digestible course for me to follow.
In the situation under discussion, most experts agree on a conclusion, and disagree about the argument.
It is possible (but not necessary) that this means that nothing can be known about the subject. However, if this is the case, then much less is it the case that I personally can know the opposite, namely by agreeing with the minority.
I agree. It seems to me the world is full of charlatans and fools who pretend to be experts. And many of them will go to great lengths to signal their ersatz-experthood.
I think that there are only two checks on this problem: First, if the expert can justify his beliefs to intelligent but skeptical laypeople. Second, if the expert can consistently make accurate and interesting predictions. Ideally, the expert should be able to do both.
If not, there is a serious risk that the expert and his comrades will drift into charlatanhood.
Where you say “pretend to be experts”, do you include those credentialled as experts by accredited institutions? If so, this is the “theologist problem” and your analysis needs I think to cut a little deeper.
Absolutely. For example, as an attorney, I have met attorneys who are pretty much incompetent but who put on airs, throw around fancy lingo, and succeed in convincing a lot of people they know what they are doing.
I met one guy who is listed in “Best Lawyers in America” for his so-called area of expertise; teaches a class in that area at a top law school; and pulls down a big fat salary. And yet he is an idiot who just acts confident.
Perhaps this is less of a problem in the law since there are judges and juries to provide some kind of reality check now and then.
I met one guy who is listed in “Best Lawyers in America” for his so-called area of expertise; teaches a class in that area at a top law school; and pulls down a big fat salary. And yet he is an idiot who just acts confident.
As a current law student, I’m curious about this. Who is he and what does he teach? How do you tell whether someone is actually qualified? How did he get to this position without having any expertise, given that universities, firms, and clients are usually pretty picky and careful about who they hire? (Feel free to private message me if you need to.)
Is this just political disagreement? People often call intelligent, controversial politicians and judges (Bush, Obama, Scalia, Thomas) “idiots” when they usually mean they disagree with the person in question.
Obviously I’m not going to name names. But actually, that’s part of the problem: Once somebody has a reputation or credential of being an expert, people are hesitant to publicly question that person’s qualifications for fear of damaging themselves. So it can lead to a kind of groupthink.
Anyway, I worked with this guy on a project or two and it quickly became clear he was pretty much clueless. Or at least wildly less qualified than one would think given his credentials. I had a good time laughing about it (in private) with other junior attorneys.
And no, it’s not a political disagreement. I have no idea what this guy’s politics are like. (Except of course for guesses based on his social class and millieu). But I do agree with you that a lot of people are biased in this way. I myself am regularly accused of being stupid or of being a paid shill during internet debates on politically charged issues and I agree 100% with whomever said that politics is the mindkiller.
Anyway, since you are a law student there is a decent chance you will meet a professor who doesn’t live up to the hype, so to speak. Also, law school provides another example of the expert problem.
Law professors are supposed to be experts in the law. And yet if 90% of law professors said “the law should be X,” should one accept it? I myself am skeptical. Among other things, law professors need to be socially accepted by other law professors. Further, law professors got where they are by being the sort of person who is socially accepted by other law professors. It seems to me these factors probably inform their thinking, especially on politically charged issues.
I’m not saying that it would be impossible for us to form a better judgment in principle. I am saying that if almost all the experts can’t explain the matter properly, there is no reason to think I can do so myself—I am better off trusting their low quality judgments.
If it’s a widely studied matter (just not by me, yet) and truly ALL experts don’t seem to be able to transmit their reasons for believing things to me, then I’m going to be very skeptical that there’s anything in the field of study to learn at all, unless there’s a good argument that I should expect the field to be so enigmatic. I think I’m better off believing nothing about the topic if it’s so immune to communication.
It’s only when experts agree, and when it seems like I can in principle follow their work and understand the primary evidence, e.g. any advanced science or engineering discipline, that I can trust experts even though they’ve failed to present an easily digestible course for me to follow.
In the situation under discussion, most experts agree on a conclusion, and disagree about the argument.
It is possible (but not necessary) that this means that nothing can be known about the subject. However, if this is the case, then much less is it the case that I personally can know the opposite, namely by agreeing with the minority.
I agree. It seems to me the world is full of charlatans and fools who pretend to be experts. And many of them will go to great lengths to signal their ersatz-experthood.
I think that there are only two checks on this problem: First, if the expert can justify his beliefs to intelligent but skeptical laypeople. Second, if the expert can consistently make accurate and interesting predictions. Ideally, the expert should be able to do both.
If not, there is a serious risk that the expert and his comrades will drift into charlatanhood.
Where you say “pretend to be experts”, do you include those credentialled as experts by accredited institutions? If so, this is the “theologist problem” and your analysis needs I think to cut a little deeper.
Absolutely. For example, as an attorney, I have met attorneys who are pretty much incompetent but who put on airs, throw around fancy lingo, and succeed in convincing a lot of people they know what they are doing.
I met one guy who is listed in “Best Lawyers in America” for his so-called area of expertise; teaches a class in that area at a top law school; and pulls down a big fat salary. And yet he is an idiot who just acts confident.
Perhaps this is less of a problem in the law since there are judges and juries to provide some kind of reality check now and then.
As a current law student, I’m curious about this. Who is he and what does he teach? How do you tell whether someone is actually qualified? How did he get to this position without having any expertise, given that universities, firms, and clients are usually pretty picky and careful about who they hire? (Feel free to private message me if you need to.)
Is this just political disagreement? People often call intelligent, controversial politicians and judges (Bush, Obama, Scalia, Thomas) “idiots” when they usually mean they disagree with the person in question.
Obviously I’m not going to name names. But actually, that’s part of the problem: Once somebody has a reputation or credential of being an expert, people are hesitant to publicly question that person’s qualifications for fear of damaging themselves. So it can lead to a kind of groupthink.
Anyway, I worked with this guy on a project or two and it quickly became clear he was pretty much clueless. Or at least wildly less qualified than one would think given his credentials. I had a good time laughing about it (in private) with other junior attorneys.
And no, it’s not a political disagreement. I have no idea what this guy’s politics are like. (Except of course for guesses based on his social class and millieu). But I do agree with you that a lot of people are biased in this way. I myself am regularly accused of being stupid or of being a paid shill during internet debates on politically charged issues and I agree 100% with whomever said that politics is the mindkiller.
Anyway, since you are a law student there is a decent chance you will meet a professor who doesn’t live up to the hype, so to speak. Also, law school provides another example of the expert problem.
Law professors are supposed to be experts in the law. And yet if 90% of law professors said “the law should be X,” should one accept it? I myself am skeptical. Among other things, law professors need to be socially accepted by other law professors. Further, law professors got where they are by being the sort of person who is socially accepted by other law professors. It seems to me these factors probably inform their thinking, especially on politically charged issues.