If you know nothing else about a topic, then knowing that experts believe H should raise your credence in H. (Rejecting this likelihood ratio would imply a very bizarre world. It would mean that studying a topic, on average, does not improve your beliefs about it, even after correcting for your knowledge of this ineffectiveness!)
Obviously, that if-conditional does not apply here, and one must weigh the other evidence one has against the weight due to the expert opinion. This does not mean that expert opinion pushes you 0 bits of evidence toward their position; it just means there might be evidence pushing you more strongly in another direction.
On top of that issue is the issue of skepticism among those close to InquilineKea: how does IK assure them that his/her understanding is at least at the level of purported experts? And here, it gets tricker: do they have good reason to believe IK is overestimating his/her understanding relative to the experts?
Even if they don’t, and IK can convince them of this, the battle’s not over yet! There may be benefits to going along with the experts, as perceived by those close to IK, that IK cannot overcome: for example, even if the experts are wrong, you will probably get more sympathy and help from the authorities if you follow their advice, so IK’s associates are within reason to consider this benefit, if indeed that’s what’s driving them.
Since IK mentions that this has serious impact on his/her relationships, I think there’s a lot more at play here than how to properly account for expert opinion in your beliefs—there are significant “social navigation skills” involved that probably account for how this issue is cascading to other areas so badly.
Oh true—thanks for the reply! Those are definitely very good points in themselves
Even if they don’t, and IK can convince them of this, the battle’s not over yet! There may be benefits to going along with the experts, as perceived by those close to IK, that IK cannot overcome: for example, even if the experts are wrong, you will probably get more sympathy and help from the authorities if you follow their advice, so IK’s associates are within reason to consider this benefit, if indeed that’s what’s driving them.
Since IK mentions that this has serious impact on his/her relationships, I think there’s a lot more at play here than how to properly account for expert opinion in your beliefs—there are significant “social navigation skills” involved that probably account for how this issue is cascading to other areas so badly.
Yeah, definitely. It’s a skill that I’m still trying to work on. It just takes a lot of time and effort.
Well said. To elaborate:
If you know nothing else about a topic, then knowing that experts believe H should raise your credence in H. (Rejecting this likelihood ratio would imply a very bizarre world. It would mean that studying a topic, on average, does not improve your beliefs about it, even after correcting for your knowledge of this ineffectiveness!)
Obviously, that if-conditional does not apply here, and one must weigh the other evidence one has against the weight due to the expert opinion. This does not mean that expert opinion pushes you 0 bits of evidence toward their position; it just means there might be evidence pushing you more strongly in another direction.
On top of that issue is the issue of skepticism among those close to InquilineKea: how does IK assure them that his/her understanding is at least at the level of purported experts? And here, it gets tricker: do they have good reason to believe IK is overestimating his/her understanding relative to the experts?
Even if they don’t, and IK can convince them of this, the battle’s not over yet! There may be benefits to going along with the experts, as perceived by those close to IK, that IK cannot overcome: for example, even if the experts are wrong, you will probably get more sympathy and help from the authorities if you follow their advice, so IK’s associates are within reason to consider this benefit, if indeed that’s what’s driving them.
Since IK mentions that this has serious impact on his/her relationships, I think there’s a lot more at play here than how to properly account for expert opinion in your beliefs—there are significant “social navigation skills” involved that probably account for how this issue is cascading to other areas so badly.
Oh true—thanks for the reply! Those are definitely very good points in themselves
Yeah, definitely. It’s a skill that I’m still trying to work on. It just takes a lot of time and effort.