I don’t feel like reading through 166 comments, so sorry if this has already been posted.
I did get far enough to find that brianm posted this:
“The doomsday assumption makes the assumptions that:
We are randomly selected from all the observers who will ever exist...”
Since we’re randomly selecting, let’s not look at individual people. Let’s look at it like taking marbles from a bag. One marble is red. 99 are blue. A guy flips a coin. If it comes up heads, he takes out the red marble. If it comes up tails, he takes out the blue marbles. You then take one of the remaining marbles out at random. Do I even need to say what the probability of getting a blue marble is?
You have to look at individuals in order to get odds for individuals. Your obvious probability of getting a blue marble is for the group of marbles.
But I think we can still look at individual randomly selected marbles.
Before the coin flip let’s write numbers on all the marbles, 1 to 100, without regard to color. And let’s say we roll a fair 100 sided die, and get the number 37.
After the flip and extraction of colored marbles. I look in the bag and find that marble 37 is in it. Given that marble 37 survived, what is the probability that it is blue?
I don’t feel like reading through 166 comments, so sorry if this has already been posted.
I did get far enough to find that brianm posted this: “The doomsday assumption makes the assumptions that:
We are randomly selected from all the observers who will ever exist...”
Since we’re randomly selecting, let’s not look at individual people. Let’s look at it like taking marbles from a bag. One marble is red. 99 are blue. A guy flips a coin. If it comes up heads, he takes out the red marble. If it comes up tails, he takes out the blue marbles. You then take one of the remaining marbles out at random. Do I even need to say what the probability of getting a blue marble is?
You have to look at individuals in order to get odds for individuals. Your obvious probability of getting a blue marble is for the group of marbles.
But I think we can still look at individual randomly selected marbles.
Before the coin flip let’s write numbers on all the marbles, 1 to 100, without regard to color. And let’s say we roll a fair 100 sided die, and get the number 37.
After the flip and extraction of colored marbles. I look in the bag and find that marble 37 is in it. Given that marble 37 survived, what is the probability that it is blue?