They’ll be wrong about the generation part only.
But that’s the important part. It’s called the “Doomsday Argument” for a reason: it concludes that doomsday is imminent.
Of course the last 2⁄3 is still going to be 2⁄3 of the total. So is the first 2⁄3.
Imminent doomsday is the only non-trivial conclusion, and it relies on the assumption that exponential growth will continue right up to a doomsday.
But that’s the important part. It’s called the “Doomsday Argument” for a reason: it concludes that doomsday is imminent.
Of course the last 2⁄3 is still going to be 2⁄3 of the total. So is the first 2⁄3.
Imminent doomsday is the only non-trivial conclusion, and it relies on the assumption that exponential growth will continue right up to a doomsday.