Also, I agree that in theory you would have some subjective probability that there were other trials. But this prevents assigning any exact value to the probability because we can’t make any definitively correct answer. So I was assuming that you either know that the event is isolated, or you know that it is not, so that you could assign a definite value.
I’m not sure what it would mean for the event to be isolated. (Not to contradict my previous statement that you have to treat it as a stand alone event. My position is that it is .99 for any number of trials, though I still need to digest your corrected math.)
I’m not sure how different an event could be before you don’t need to consider it part of the set you could have found yourself in.
If you’re in a set of two red-blue trials, and omegas says there is another set of orange-green trials run the same and likewise told about the red-blues, then it seems you would need to treat that as a set of 4.
If you know you’re in a trial with the (99 blue or 1 red) protocol, but there is also a trial with a (2 blue or 1 red) protocol, then those 1 or 2 people will skew your probabilities slightly.
If Omega tells you there is an intelligent species of alien in which male conceptions yield 99 identical twins and female conceptions only 1, with a .50 probability of conceiving female, and in which the young do not know their gender until maturity… then is that also part of the set you could have been in? If not, I’m honestly not sure where to draw the line. If so, then there I’d expect we could find so many such situations that apply to how individual humans come to exist now, so there may be billions of trials.
Also, I agree that in theory you would have some subjective probability that there were other trials. But this prevents assigning any exact value to the probability because we can’t make any definitively correct answer. So I was assuming that you either know that the event is isolated, or you know that it is not, so that you could assign a definite value.
I’m not sure what it would mean for the event to be isolated. (Not to contradict my previous statement that you have to treat it as a stand alone event. My position is that it is .99 for any number of trials, though I still need to digest your corrected math.)
I’m not sure how different an event could be before you don’t need to consider it part of the set you could have found yourself in.
If you’re in a set of two red-blue trials, and omegas says there is another set of orange-green trials run the same and likewise told about the red-blues, then it seems you would need to treat that as a set of 4.
If you know you’re in a trial with the (99 blue or 1 red) protocol, but there is also a trial with a (2 blue or 1 red) protocol, then those 1 or 2 people will skew your probabilities slightly.
If Omega tells you there is an intelligent species of alien in which male conceptions yield 99 identical twins and female conceptions only 1, with a .50 probability of conceiving female, and in which the young do not know their gender until maturity… then is that also part of the set you could have been in? If not, I’m honestly not sure where to draw the line. If so, then there I’d expect we could find so many such situations that apply to how individual humans come to exist now, so there may be billions of trials.