The events in a story fit into a narrative. If I were in a story, I might be able to make especially accurate predictions by privileging hypotheses that make narrative sense. Dumbledore did this on an intuitive level, and it is the reason for his success.
Then again, if your predictions are part of the narrative, the narrative might go on to explicitly falsify your predictions. And if you except it to falsify your predictions… well, two can play that game.
The events in a story fit into a narrative. If I were in a story, I might be able to make especially accurate predictions by privileging hypotheses that make narrative sense. Dumbledore did this on an intuitive level, and it is the reason for his success.
This is basically an attempt to formalize genre savviness.
And of course, if you really were in a story and tried it, story logic dictates that you would almost certainly end up being wrong genre savvy
Then again, if your predictions are part of the narrative, the narrative might go on to explicitly falsify your predictions. And if you except it to falsify your predictions… well, two can play that game.