I meant to say that orthonormal really did write the message back on the 25th with p=.99, and here are the three events that I am aware of that might cause my high level of confidence to be misplaced—the three largest sources of my remaining uncertainty, if you will.
If I assign p=.99 to an outcome and the outcome turns out to be false, it is a good bet that I misunderstood the question or misunderstood some proximate cause of the outcome, and in this case, the proximate cause I am most likely to misunderstand has to do with properties of hash functions.
I see I have failed to communicate unambiguously.
I meant to say that orthonormal really did write the message back on the 25th with p=.99, and here are the three events that I am aware of that might cause my high level of confidence to be misplaced—the three largest sources of my remaining uncertainty, if you will.
If I assign p=.99 to an outcome and the outcome turns out to be false, it is a good bet that I misunderstood the question or misunderstood some proximate cause of the outcome, and in this case, the proximate cause I am most likely to misunderstand has to do with properties of hash functions.
Clear now?