Have you taken into account the cutting criticisms from Cosma on the bogosity of many power-law claims?
No, thanks for pointing that out. He didn’t look directly at epidemics or any natural disasters, but his general critiques may be worth looking into.
I would assign a higher existential risk than direct extinction risk, on the basis that social collapse might be irrecoverable, but this is a small x-risk compared to artificial diseases.
Still makes the top five in our current estimation.
You said survivor-killing drones were a risk factor from Drexlerian nanotech, but those could be created separately. Also, permanent nasty totalitarianism is on the x-risk list. I’d say that should be higher than natural pandemics.
No, thanks for pointing that out. He didn’t look directly at epidemics or any natural disasters, but his general critiques may be worth looking into.
Still makes the top five in our current estimation.
You said survivor-killing drones were a risk factor from Drexlerian nanotech, but those could be created separately. Also, permanent nasty totalitarianism is on the x-risk list. I’d say that should be higher than natural pandemics.