Stock market analysts are in a somewhat similar boat. Strategists and Macro economists make long-term predictions, though their performance is rarely tracked. Short-term forecasts (one month, or one quarter) are centrally compiled, and statistics are assembled on which economists are good forecasters, but this is not the case for long-term predictions. As such, long-term predictions seem to fall into much the same camp as AI predictions here. And many bank analysts explicitly think about the non-epistemic incentives they personally face, in terms of wanting to make an impact, wanting a defensible position, and so on.
However, with economists we see much shorter forecast time horizon. A long-term forecast would be 5 years; many give less. I have never seen an explicit forecast out longer than 10 years. Perhaps this is because they don’t think people would assign any credibility to such forecasts; perhaps the remaining career duration of a macro economist is shorter than those of AI researchers. However, making several incorrect predictions is rarely very damaging to their career. Indeed, because they can selectively emphasis their ex post correct predictions, they’re incentivized to make many short-term predictions.
Prima facie much of this applies to AI commentators as well.
Stock market analysts are in a somewhat similar boat. Strategists and Macro economists make long-term predictions, though their performance is rarely tracked. Short-term forecasts (one month, or one quarter) are centrally compiled, and statistics are assembled on which economists are good forecasters, but this is not the case for long-term predictions. As such, long-term predictions seem to fall into much the same camp as AI predictions here. And many bank analysts explicitly think about the non-epistemic incentives they personally face, in terms of wanting to make an impact, wanting a defensible position, and so on.
However, with economists we see much shorter forecast time horizon. A long-term forecast would be 5 years; many give less. I have never seen an explicit forecast out longer than 10 years. Perhaps this is because they don’t think people would assign any credibility to such forecasts; perhaps the remaining career duration of a macro economist is shorter than those of AI researchers. However, making several incorrect predictions is rarely very damaging to their career. Indeed, because they can selectively emphasis their ex post correct predictions, they’re incentivized to make many short-term predictions.
Prima facie much of this applies to AI commentators as well.