This feels like a trap—if the experts are so unreliable, and we are going out of our way to be clear about how unclear this forecasting business is (currently, anyway), settling on a number seems premature. If we want to disagree with experts, we should first be able to indicate where they went wrong, and how, and why our method and data will let us do better.
This feels like a trap—if the experts are so unreliable, and we are going out of our way to be clear about how unclear this forecasting business is (currently, anyway), settling on a number seems premature. If we want to disagree with experts, we should first be able to indicate where they went wrong, and how, and why our method and data will let us do better.