We can come up with a scientific theory that is not based on observation. Most theories aren’t based on observation. Observation comes after. ‘I bet I can jump that fence’ comes before observing it.
It’s more of a cycle of observation leading to theory leading to more observation and so on. “I bet I can jump that fence” comes before observing whether you actually can, but it comes after observing the fence and your jumping abilities. You wouldn’t decide you can jump that fence without first observing it.
AspiringRationalist: thank you for your reply. It has caused me to rethink what I wrote and hopefully be less wrong.
You and I agree that there is no special difference between observations before an experiment and after and experiment. It is not observation that makes an experiment scientific. It is also not the conjecture before an experiment that makes it scientific. It is the conjecture including the condition of its refutation that makes it scientific. My prior example would be better stated (as science) with: ‘if I repeatedly and earnestly try to jump that fence and do not, it is provisionally true that I cannot.’
It’s more of a cycle of observation leading to theory leading to more observation and so on. “I bet I can jump that fence” comes before observing whether you actually can, but it comes after observing the fence and your jumping abilities. You wouldn’t decide you can jump that fence without first observing it.
AspiringRationalist: thank you for your reply. It has caused me to rethink what I wrote and hopefully be less wrong.
You and I agree that there is no special difference between observations before an experiment and after and experiment. It is not observation that makes an experiment scientific. It is also not the conjecture before an experiment that makes it scientific. It is the conjecture including the condition of its refutation that makes it scientific. My prior example would be better stated (as science) with: ‘if I repeatedly and earnestly try to jump that fence and do not, it is provisionally true that I cannot.’