Like, as a crappy toy model, if every alignment-visionary’s vision would ultimately succeed, but only after 30 years of study along their particular path, then no amount of new visionaries added will decrease the amount of time required from “30y since the first visionary started out”.
A deterministic model seems a bit weird 🤔. I’m imagining something like an exponential distribution. In that case, if every visionary’s project has an expected value of 30 years, and there are n visionaries, then the expected value for when the first one finishes is 30/n years. This is exactly the same as if they were working together on one project.
You might be able to get a more precise answer by trying to statistically model the research process (something something complex systems theory). But unfortunately, determining the amount of research required to solve alignment seems doubtful, which hampers the usefulness. :P
A deterministic model seems a bit weird 🤔. I’m imagining something like an exponential distribution. In that case, if every visionary’s project has an expected value of 30 years, and there are n visionaries, then the expected value for when the first one finishes is 30/n years. This is exactly the same as if they were working together on one project.
You might be able to get a more precise answer by trying to statistically model the research process (something something complex systems theory). But unfortunately, determining the amount of research required to solve alignment seems doubtful, which hampers the usefulness. :P