I disagree with this view that someone’s vision could “succeed” in some sense. Rather, all visions (at least if they are scientifically and methodologically rigorous), if actually applied in AGI engineering, will increase the chances that the given AGI will go well.
However, at this stage (AGI very soon, race between AGI labs) it’s now the time to convince AGI labs to use any of the existing visions, apart from (and in parallel with, not instead) their own. While simultaneously, trying to make these visions more mature. In other words: researchers shouldn’t “spread” and try to “crack alignment” independently from each other. Rather, they should try to reinforce existing visions (while people with social capital and political skill should try to convince AGI labs to use these visions).
The multi-disciplinary (and multi-vision!) view on AI safety includes the model above, however, I haven’t elaborated on this exact idea yet (the linked post describes the technical side of the view, and the social/strategic/timelines-aware argument for the multi-disciplinary view is yet to be written).
I disagree with this view that someone’s vision could “succeed” in some sense. Rather, all visions (at least if they are scientifically and methodologically rigorous), if actually applied in AGI engineering, will increase the chances that the given AGI will go well.
However, at this stage (AGI very soon, race between AGI labs) it’s now the time to convince AGI labs to use any of the existing visions, apart from (and in parallel with, not instead) their own. While simultaneously, trying to make these visions more mature. In other words: researchers shouldn’t “spread” and try to “crack alignment” independently from each other. Rather, they should try to reinforce existing visions (while people with social capital and political skill should try to convince AGI labs to use these visions).
The multi-disciplinary (and multi-vision!) view on AI safety includes the model above, however, I haven’t elaborated on this exact idea yet (the linked post describes the technical side of the view, and the social/strategic/timelines-aware argument for the multi-disciplinary view is yet to be written).