Sorry I agree that comment and those links left some big inferential gaps.
I believe the link below is more holistic and doesn’t leave such big leaps (admittedly it does have some 2021-specific themes that haven’t aged so well, but I don’t believe they undermine the core argument made).
This still leaves a gap between cost per transistor and overall compute cost, but that’s a much smaller leap e.g. frequency being bound by physical constraints like the speed of light. etc..
To evidence my point about this trend getting even worse after 2030 - EUV lithography was actively being pursued for decades before active usage in 2030. My understanding is that we don’t have anything that significant at the level of maturity that EUV was at in the 90s. Consider my epistemic status on this point fairly weak though.
Sorry I agree that comment and those links left some big inferential gaps.
I believe the link below is more holistic and doesn’t leave such big leaps (admittedly it does have some 2021-specific themes that haven’t aged so well, but I don’t believe they undermine the core argument made).
https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor
This still leaves a gap between cost per transistor and overall compute cost, but that’s a much smaller leap e.g. frequency being bound by physical constraints like the speed of light. etc..
To evidence my point about this trend getting even worse after 2030 - EUV lithography was actively being pursued for decades before active usage in 2030. My understanding is that we don’t have anything that significant at the level of maturity that EUV was at in the 90s. Consider my epistemic status on this point fairly weak though.