If, as far as he knew, winds are random, shouldn’t he still have turned around after half his supplies were gone, in case the winds randomly decide to starve him?
In Alexander’s experience, the winds randomly changed direction from day to day. Over the course of a week or two, one was very likely to encounter a favorable wind. It’s not one random variable, it’s more like one independent random variable per day.
Also, although I didn’t discuss it in the OP, the book argues that a large premodern army sitting in one place would quickly exhaust nearby food stores. That was probably also a large factor in Alexander’s decision to leave India; turning back would likely have left them in a tough spot within a couple months.
If, as far as he knew, winds are random, shouldn’t he still have turned around after half his supplies were gone, in case the winds randomly decide to starve him?
In Alexander’s experience, the winds randomly changed direction from day to day. Over the course of a week or two, one was very likely to encounter a favorable wind. It’s not one random variable, it’s more like one independent random variable per day.
Also, although I didn’t discuss it in the OP, the book argues that a large premodern army sitting in one place would quickly exhaust nearby food stores. That was probably also a large factor in Alexander’s decision to leave India; turning back would likely have left them in a tough spot within a couple months.