In other words, we should be telling children ‘be careful of roads/cars’ (including on Halloween)
Not
‘be careful of Halloween’
I agree with the post, but I will point out that you really do need to emphasize the utility per micromort here.
If you keep your utility constant, it is the total risk that matters.
Just like if you were going to go on a long car ride tomorrow (on safer-than-usual roads, but not enough to outweigh the total driving) and someone points out you’re much more likely to die than usual—sure, you can point out ‘ah yes, but the chance I die per-mile is lower than usual!’ but that’s not the right reference point if your utility isn’t a function of the driving-amount.
All that said, the total number of deaths is only ~double on Halloween? That feels so insane, roads must be SO much safer than usual.
we should be telling children ‘be careful of roads/cars’ (including on Halloween) Not ‘be careful of Halloween’
Yes, but even then not unduly so. Child pedestrian deaths per FARS are about 0.5 per 100k (320 per 72M), which puts them below guns (5 per 100k), driving (4 per 100k), drugs (3 per 100k), suffocation (2 per 100k), drowning (1 per 100k), etc: https://www.jefftk.com/goldstick-causes-of-child-deaths.jpg. Total deaths under age 18 are about 37k/y, so 320 pedestrian deaths is about 1% of deaths. Worth careful teaching, but still fine to let them walk to their friends’ houses once they’re ready.
utility per micromort here
Not sure I understand what this paragraph is getting at?
In other words, we should be telling children ‘be careful of roads/cars’ (including on Halloween) Not ‘be careful of Halloween’
I agree with the post, but I will point out that you really do need to emphasize the utility per micromort here. If you keep your utility constant, it is the total risk that matters. Just like if you were going to go on a long car ride tomorrow (on safer-than-usual roads, but not enough to outweigh the total driving) and someone points out you’re much more likely to die than usual—sure, you can point out ‘ah yes, but the chance I die per-mile is lower than usual!’ but that’s not the right reference point if your utility isn’t a function of the driving-amount.
All that said, the total number of deaths is only ~double on Halloween? That feels so insane, roads must be SO much safer than usual.
Yes, but even then not unduly so. Child pedestrian deaths per FARS are about 0.5 per 100k (320 per 72M), which puts them below guns (5 per 100k), driving (4 per 100k), drugs (3 per 100k), suffocation (2 per 100k), drowning (1 per 100k), etc: https://www.jefftk.com/goldstick-causes-of-child-deaths.jpg. Total deaths under age 18 are about 37k/y, so 320 pedestrian deaths is about 1% of deaths. Worth careful teaching, but still fine to let them walk to their friends’ houses once they’re ready.
Not sure I understand what this paragraph is getting at?
But it’s also dark and chaotic.