I’m using progress here as a stand-in for economic and scientific progress (which are not exactly the same thing but are closely linked so I’m going to continue conflating them). And the track record indicates that these things do almost always translate into more people get more nice things, be that toilets or education or anything else. (Digression: I highly recommend Factfulness by Hans Rosling for a global perspective rather than the rich-country-centric one of most commenters here.) Yes, there are a small number of cases like nuclear physics where progress risks serious harm, but let’s deal with those on a case-by-case basis and not use it as a reason to slow down progress in general.
Re your concerns about job loss and structural upheaval, these are widely repeated in the press, but this is one of those cases where the press and elite narrative has detached from reality. The structure of jobs in the economy has been changing since the Industrial Revolution with workers moving from agriculture to manufacturing and later from manufacturing services. Jobs have been going obsolete for about as long as the modern concept of employment has existed. And the evidence is that the rate of structural change today is either normal vs history (the US) or slower than normal (the UK).
I only have the UK data to hand but try this research from the Resolution Foundation, especially the summary and the graph on page 25. Assuming you agree that historic jobs going obsolete was net beneficial (the alternative is freezing tech at some past state) then there is no reason to be more concerned about job loss today. There may be a future time where AI makes such progress that we do have to worry about mass job losses and how to handle that transition, but despite what the mainstream media thinks, we are not there yet.
I have a suspicion you and I would agree on most important points, we just have somewhat different preferred responses to a certain category of left-wing concerns.
I have a suspicion you and I would agree on most important points, we just have somewhat different preferred responses to a certain category of left-wing concerns.
Probably. I’m somewhat curious about what those concerns are.
I think rules around ‘intellectual property’ are an issue. How things are in the U.S. around say, insulin, and copyright (for instance around Disney)...overall, the U.S. government seems to be in the habit of creating monopolies. This seems bad for progress and, at least on the margin, it seems things could be improved if that was done less, and pushed back, rather than advanced. In other words, you could say I think more progress, full speed ahead, is the way to go.
The obvious ‘exception’ I see to this stuff like Global Warming (though clearly not an exception in that progress is also part of the obvious ways out here). In general, otherwise, tech/etc. seems to make everyone’s lives better. And the tech involved also does that, at the same time as causing other issues.
Yes, there are a small number of cases like nuclear physics where progress risks serious harm, but let’s deal with those on a case-by-case basis and not use it as a reason to slow down progress in general.
True. After thinking on it more, something like warfare in general seems more like the issue. (Although getting nukes, but not a lot of nuclear power seems like as loss.)
I’m using progress here as a stand-in for economic and scientific progress (which are not exactly the same thing but are closely linked so I’m going to continue conflating them). And the track record indicates that these things do almost always translate into more people get more nice things, be that toilets or education or anything else. (Digression: I highly recommend Factfulness by Hans Rosling for a global perspective rather than the rich-country-centric one of most commenters here.) Yes, there are a small number of cases like nuclear physics where progress risks serious harm, but let’s deal with those on a case-by-case basis and not use it as a reason to slow down progress in general.
Re your concerns about job loss and structural upheaval, these are widely repeated in the press, but this is one of those cases where the press and elite narrative has detached from reality. The structure of jobs in the economy has been changing since the Industrial Revolution with workers moving from agriculture to manufacturing and later from manufacturing services. Jobs have been going obsolete for about as long as the modern concept of employment has existed. And the evidence is that the rate of structural change today is either normal vs history (the US) or slower than normal (the UK).
I only have the UK data to hand but try this research from the Resolution Foundation, especially the summary and the graph on page 25. Assuming you agree that historic jobs going obsolete was net beneficial (the alternative is freezing tech at some past state) then there is no reason to be more concerned about job loss today. There may be a future time where AI makes such progress that we do have to worry about mass job losses and how to handle that transition, but despite what the mainstream media thinks, we are not there yet.
I have a suspicion you and I would agree on most important points, we just have somewhat different preferred responses to a certain category of left-wing concerns.
Probably. I’m somewhat curious about what those concerns are.
I think rules around ‘intellectual property’ are an issue. How things are in the U.S. around say, insulin, and copyright (for instance around Disney)...overall, the U.S. government seems to be in the habit of creating monopolies. This seems bad for progress and, at least on the margin, it seems things could be improved if that was done less, and pushed back, rather than advanced. In other words, you could say I think more progress, full speed ahead, is the way to go.
The obvious ‘exception’ I see to this stuff like Global Warming (though clearly not an exception in that progress is also part of the obvious ways out here). In general, otherwise, tech/etc. seems to make everyone’s lives better. And the tech involved also does that, at the same time as causing other issues.
True. After thinking on it more, something like warfare in general seems more like the issue. (Although getting nukes, but not a lot of nuclear power seems like as loss.)