Attempting to highlight relevant variables:
how likely your persuasion is to offend parents (which is a pdf, not binary, of course)
how much you care whether you offend parents (see previous parenthetical)
U(child lives a long time) - U(child dies as expected)
P(child lives a long time | child gets frozen)
P(child gets frozen | you try to persuade the parents)
Edited to fix formatting.
Attempting to highlight relevant variables:
how likely your persuasion is to offend parents (which is a pdf, not binary, of course)
how much you care whether you offend parents (see previous parenthetical)
U(child lives a long time) - U(child dies as expected)
P(child lives a long time | child gets frozen)
P(child gets frozen | you try to persuade the parents)
Edited to fix formatting.