I think that for people (such as myself) who think/realize timelines are likely short, I find it more truth-tracking to use terminology that actually represents my epistemic state (that timelines are likely short) rather than hedging all the time and making it seem like I’m really uncertain.
Under my own lights, I’d be giving bad advice if I were hedging about timelines when giving advice (because the advice wouldn’t be tracking the world as it is, it would be tracking a probability distribution I disagree with and thus a probability distribution that leads to bad decisions), and my aim is to give good advice.
Like, if a house was 70% likely to be set on fire, I’d say something like “The people who realize that the house is dangerous should leave the house” instead of using think.
But yeah, point taken. “Realize” could imply consensus, which I don’t mean to do.
I’ve changed the wording to be more precise now (“have <6 year median AGI timelines”)
I think that for people (such as myself) who think/realize timelines are likely short, I find it more truth-tracking to use terminology that actually represents my epistemic state (that timelines are likely short) rather than hedging all the time and making it seem like I’m really uncertain.
Under my own lights, I’d be giving bad advice if I were hedging about timelines when giving advice (because the advice wouldn’t be tracking the world as it is, it would be tracking a probability distribution I disagree with and thus a probability distribution that leads to bad decisions), and my aim is to give good advice.
Like, if a house was 70% likely to be set on fire, I’d say something like “The people who realize that the house is dangerous should leave the house” instead of using think.
But yeah, point taken. “Realize” could imply consensus, which I don’t mean to do.
I’ve changed the wording to be more precise now (“have <6 year median AGI timelines”)