@Nikola Jurkovic I’d be interested in timeline estimates for something along the lines of “AI that substantially increases AI R&D”. Not exactly sure what the right way to operationalize this is, but something that says “if there is a period of Rapid AI-enabled AI Progress, this is when we think it would occur.”
(I don’t really love the “95% of fully remote jobs could be automated frame”, partially because I don’t think it captures many of the specific domains we care about (e.g., AI-enabled R&D, other natsec-relevant capabilities) and partly because I suspect people have pretty different views of how easy/hard remote jobs are. Like, some people think that lots of remote jobs today are basically worthless and could already be automated, whereas others disagree. If the purpose of the forecasting question is to get a sense of how powerful AI will be, the disagreements about “how much do people actually contribute in remote jobs” seems like unnecessary noise.)
(Nitpicks aside, this is cool and I appreciate you running this poll!)
The median AGI timeline of more than half of METR employees is before the end of 2030.
(AGI is defined as 95% of fully remote jobs from 2023 being automatable.)
Source?
I’m interning there and I conducted a poll.
I am assuming this is the result of Nikolas asking some METR employees (he was hanging out in Berkeley recently).
@Nikola Jurkovic I’d be interested in timeline estimates for something along the lines of “AI that substantially increases AI R&D”. Not exactly sure what the right way to operationalize this is, but something that says “if there is a period of Rapid AI-enabled AI Progress, this is when we think it would occur.”
(I don’t really love the “95% of fully remote jobs could be automated frame”, partially because I don’t think it captures many of the specific domains we care about (e.g., AI-enabled R&D, other natsec-relevant capabilities) and partly because I suspect people have pretty different views of how easy/hard remote jobs are. Like, some people think that lots of remote jobs today are basically worthless and could already be automated, whereas others disagree. If the purpose of the forecasting question is to get a sense of how powerful AI will be, the disagreements about “how much do people actually contribute in remote jobs” seems like unnecessary noise.)
(Nitpicks aside, this is cool and I appreciate you running this poll!)