Can you explain what’s your definition of “accuracy”? (the 87.7% figure)Does it correspond to some proper scoring rule?
i’d guess 87.7% is the average over all events x of [ p(x) if resolved yes else 1-p(x) ] where p(x) is the probability the predictor assigns to the event
Can you explain what’s your definition of “accuracy”? (the 87.7% figure)
Does it correspond to some proper scoring rule?
i’d guess 87.7% is the average over all events x of [ p(x) if resolved yes else 1-p(x) ] where p(x) is the probability the predictor assigns to the event