Very cool. A few initial experiments worked well for me.
It’s interesting to see how much phrasing matters. I expect this is true for human forecasters as well.
I tried predicting this manifold market and got predictions for basically the same concept varying between 10% and 78%.
https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/will-ai-be-recursively-self-improvi
Checked p(AI fizzle) and got 10%. Seems high to me.
Very cool. A few initial experiments worked well for me. It’s interesting to see how much phrasing matters. I expect this is true for human forecasters as well. I tried predicting this manifold market and got predictions for basically the same concept varying between 10% and 78%. https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/will-ai-be-recursively-self-improvi
Checked p(AI fizzle) and got 10%. Seems high to me.
p(self-replicating nanotech in 10 years) = 15%