A thing that is different from a forecasting bot, is an “operationalization” bot, that scans threads with disagreements for plausible operationalizations of the disagreement.
I think good discourse is partly bottlenecked on “it’s pretty expensive and annoying to operationalize many disagreements, in ways that actually help get to the heart of the matter.”
I’d be pretty interested in experimenting with operationalization-bot and forecasting-bot combos (once they get sufficiently good to not be annoying), that scan disagreements, suggest little cloud-bubbles of “is this a cruxy operationalization you could bet on?”, which maybe disappear if nobody clicks “yep”.
Then, people are encouraged to put their own probabilities on it, and then, afterwards (to avoid anchoring), a forecasting bot gives it’s own guess.
Some additional thoughts:
A thing that is different from a forecasting bot, is an “operationalization” bot, that scans threads with disagreements for plausible operationalizations of the disagreement.
I think good discourse is partly bottlenecked on “it’s pretty expensive and annoying to operationalize many disagreements, in ways that actually help get to the heart of the matter.”
I’d be pretty interested in experimenting with operationalization-bot and forecasting-bot combos (once they get sufficiently good to not be annoying), that scan disagreements, suggest little cloud-bubbles of “is this a cruxy operationalization you could bet on?”, which maybe disappear if nobody clicks “yep”.
Then, people are encouraged to put their own probabilities on it, and then, afterwards (to avoid anchoring), a forecasting bot gives it’s own guess.