Conjunction Fallacy Fallacy: we should be wary of saying that the conjunction of two unlikely events must be much more unlikely the the exclusive occurrence of a a single one of those events, because sometimes the events are strongly connected.
Arguably claims about Donald Trump winning enough states—but Nate Silver didn’t assume independence, and his site still gave the outcome a low probability.
Do you know what the Electoral College is? If so, see here:
The single most important reason that our model gave Trump a better chance than others is because of our assumption that polling errors are correlated.
The Conjunction Fallacy Fallacy
Conjunction Fallacy Fallacy: we should be wary of saying that the conjunction of two unlikely events must be much more unlikely the the exclusive occurrence of a a single one of those events, because sometimes the events are strongly connected.
Example
Has anyone seen other examples in the wild?
Arguably claims about Donald Trump winning enough states—but Nate Silver didn’t assume independence, and his site still gave the outcome a low probability.
I’m from Nigeria, and not conversant enough with American politics for the above to be meaningful to me. Please enlighten me?
Do you know what the Electoral College is? If so, see here:
No, I’ve heard of the electoral college, but I wouldn’t say I “know what it is”.