In this chapter I argue that the technological singularity is likely to occur within the next 200 years...
If it takes 200 years it could as well take 2000. I’m skeptical that if it doesn’t occur this century it will occur next century for sure. If it doesn’t occur this century then that might as well mean that it won’t occur any time soon afterwards either.
I have a similar feeling. If it hasn’t happened within a century, I’ll probably think (assume for the sake of argument I’m still around) that it will be in millenia or never.
If it takes 200 years it could as well take 2000. I’m skeptical that if it doesn’t occur this century it will occur next century for sure. If it doesn’t occur this century then that might as well mean that it won’t occur any time soon afterwards either.
I have a similar feeling. If it hasn’t happened within a century, I’ll probably think (assume for the sake of argument I’m still around) that it will be in millenia or never.
200 years is my ‘outer bound.’ It may very well happen much sooner, for example in 45 years.