Yes, those are all examples of stage 1 -- where you have some system that gives answers, and works, even though you can’t say why. They are extensions of the “primitively understood” part of reality that I mention in Level 2 (but which counts as Level 1).
I don’t know why you say they’re not “generative”—when make a prediction with the black box inside you, you’ve generated a prediction.
However, as I mentioned in another comment, there can be partial progress on the levels. For example, if your experience with people allows you to make predictions in very different areas of human behavior, in such a way that the predictions relate to each other and have implications for each other, that would be progress into Level 2. (Though this would still be a shallow connection to your other models because it only connects to phenomena involving human behavior.)
Yes, those are all examples of stage 1 -- where you have some system that gives answers, and works, even though you can’t say why. They are extensions of the “primitively understood” part of reality that I mention in Level 2 (but which counts as Level 1).
I don’t know why you say they’re not “generative”—when make a prediction with the black box inside you, you’ve generated a prediction.
However, as I mentioned in another comment, there can be partial progress on the levels. For example, if your experience with people allows you to make predictions in very different areas of human behavior, in such a way that the predictions relate to each other and have implications for each other, that would be progress into Level 2. (Though this would still be a shallow connection to your other models because it only connects to phenomena involving human behavior.)