You can stay. You’re then in constant danger, with let’s say p=0.1 of each person getting killed.
The whole family can leave. The process is risky; let’s say p=0.01 of each person getting killed. Then with p=0.5 you find somewhere to stay and are then safe, but if not you have to return (so another p=0.01 of getting killed) and then your situation is as before with p=0.1 of getting killed.
One person can leave. Still risky. It might be less risky for a single young fit person who can run and hide and fight better, but let’s ignore that. So that one person gets p=0.01 of getting killed; then with p=0.5 they have to come back (another p=0.01 of death) but now the rest of the family can stay put, and otherwise the family goes out to join them (p=0.01 of death again, but now knowing that they will be safe once they’re out).
This doesn’t seem contrived to me. And in that situation, it seems very reasonable to choose the “send one person first” option. (Even more so if we don’t ignore the possibility that one person can get out and investigate other countries more safely than a whole family.)
That is ridiculously contrived, and would probably have handed the debate to VofR if you and Imm were the only people arguing against him.
However RichardKennaway has already given the real answer: They are opportunity seekers in the last leg of their journey, but their starting point in that search is various refugee camps in Turkey and the middle east, to which they fled from war and other real dangers. If you look at the demographics in the refugee camps they look much more like whole families fleeing together.
Additionally, if one person in a family gets papers to stay legally in any EU country, the rest of the family gets to come here on regular flights with proper visas, which is both safer and cheaper then the boats that the asylum seekers arrive on.
This is contrived, because in your model probability of getting killed does not depend on the length of time spent in a dangerous country. If you send the whole family, you reduce that time for all family members. The longer someone stays in a dangerous place, the higher is the probability of death that during that period of time.
But even that is a moot point, because among Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, number of men and women are more or less equal. Numbers are unequal only among those who attempt to go to Europe. While I don’t know what is the probability of getting killed (let’s say, within a year) in refugee camp in Turkey, but it is significantly lower than 0.1. It is probably even lower than probability of drowning in a sinking people smuggler’s boat. Personally, I find it very unconvincing that it is fear for their lives that makes them go to Europe instead of staying in Eastern Turkey.
The Pr(get killed) figures were intended to be long-term. “If I stay here, there’s a 10% chance that eventually I’ll get killed”. Delaying departure by a few months wouldn’t make a very big difference to that.
(“Long-term” is relative, of course. For a country in as much turmoil as Syria, who knows what might be happening in 10 years?)
I agree that scenarios like mine are made much less plausible if it’s only Europe that has disproportionately many men turning up.
OK, so for me someone who leaves a place because they aren’t safe there is a refugee rather than a migrant (or: as well as a migrant, but I would generally prefer to use the more informative term) even if the danger isn’t imminent.
If I live in a community where people of my ethnicity or religion or eye colour or whatever are being murdered at a rate that means I’ll probably last five years, that’s a serious threat and I need to get the hell out of there even though a couple of months’ extra time there doesn’t make a huge difference to the likelihood of death.
This depends on what “huge” means. If you’re not likely to live five years, your chance of death in a few months isn’t huge in comparison to 100% or 50%, but it’s still huge in comparison to the average person’s chance of death.
Sure. I wasn’t the one who characterized my scenario by saying “a few months here or there won’t make much of a difference”. Nor does anything in that scenario require that to be true.
it seems very reasonable to choose the “send one person first” option
It’s very reasonable when you are looking for a better place to live. It’s not very reasonable when you are in the situation of a bona fide refugee—the risks of staying are too high, so you run.
Beides, I think in practice the percentage of those who could not “find somewhere to stay” and had to return is much, much less than 50%. Once you made it to Europe, you’re golden.
It’s very reasonable when you are looking for a better place to live. It’s not very reasonable when you are in the situation of a bona fide refugee
The entire point of my comment was to sketch a situation in which it might be reasonable for a bona fide refugee. If you think it’s an implausible situation or that my analysis of the situation is wrong, fair enough, but it’s a bit off just to object on general principles as if I hadn’t just given what is intended to be a counterexample.
Suppose the situation is as follows.
You can stay. You’re then in constant danger, with let’s say p=0.1 of each person getting killed.
The whole family can leave. The process is risky; let’s say p=0.01 of each person getting killed. Then with p=0.5 you find somewhere to stay and are then safe, but if not you have to return (so another p=0.01 of getting killed) and then your situation is as before with p=0.1 of getting killed.
One person can leave. Still risky. It might be less risky for a single young fit person who can run and hide and fight better, but let’s ignore that. So that one person gets p=0.01 of getting killed; then with p=0.5 they have to come back (another p=0.01 of death) but now the rest of the family can stay put, and otherwise the family goes out to join them (p=0.01 of death again, but now knowing that they will be safe once they’re out).
This doesn’t seem contrived to me. And in that situation, it seems very reasonable to choose the “send one person first” option. (Even more so if we don’t ignore the possibility that one person can get out and investigate other countries more safely than a whole family.)
That is ridiculously contrived, and would probably have handed the debate to VofR if you and Imm were the only people arguing against him.
However RichardKennaway has already given the real answer: They are opportunity seekers in the last leg of their journey, but their starting point in that search is various refugee camps in Turkey and the middle east, to which they fled from war and other real dangers. If you look at the demographics in the refugee camps they look much more like whole families fleeing together.
Additionally, if one person in a family gets papers to stay legally in any EU country, the rest of the family gets to come here on regular flights with proper visas, which is both safer and cheaper then the boats that the asylum seekers arrive on.
This is contrived, because in your model probability of getting killed does not depend on the length of time spent in a dangerous country. If you send the whole family, you reduce that time for all family members. The longer someone stays in a dangerous place, the higher is the probability of death that during that period of time.
But even that is a moot point, because among Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, number of men and women are more or less equal. Numbers are unequal only among those who attempt to go to Europe. While I don’t know what is the probability of getting killed (let’s say, within a year) in refugee camp in Turkey, but it is significantly lower than 0.1. It is probably even lower than probability of drowning in a sinking people smuggler’s boat. Personally, I find it very unconvincing that it is fear for their lives that makes them go to Europe instead of staying in Eastern Turkey.
The Pr(get killed) figures were intended to be long-term. “If I stay here, there’s a 10% chance that eventually I’ll get killed”. Delaying departure by a few months wouldn’t make a very big difference to that.
(“Long-term” is relative, of course. For a country in as much turmoil as Syria, who knows what might be happening in 10 years?)
I agree that scenarios like mine are made much less plausible if it’s only Europe that has disproportionately many men turning up.
I guess we have a different understanding of what makes a bona fide refugee.
In my opinion, a refugee is someone who is forced to flee because of imminent danger. “A few months” make a huge difference.
“I live in a bad place, I’d better move, but a few months here or there won’t make much of a difference” creates a migrant, not a refugee.
OK, so for me someone who leaves a place because they aren’t safe there is a refugee rather than a migrant (or: as well as a migrant, but I would generally prefer to use the more informative term) even if the danger isn’t imminent.
If I live in a community where people of my ethnicity or religion or eye colour or whatever are being murdered at a rate that means I’ll probably last five years, that’s a serious threat and I need to get the hell out of there even though a couple of months’ extra time there doesn’t make a huge difference to the likelihood of death.
This depends on what “huge” means. If you’re not likely to live five years, your chance of death in a few months isn’t huge in comparison to 100% or 50%, but it’s still huge in comparison to the average person’s chance of death.
Sure. I wasn’t the one who characterized my scenario by saying “a few months here or there won’t make much of a difference”. Nor does anything in that scenario require that to be true.
It’s very reasonable when you are looking for a better place to live. It’s not very reasonable when you are in the situation of a bona fide refugee—the risks of staying are too high, so you run.
Beides, I think in practice the percentage of those who could not “find somewhere to stay” and had to return is much, much less than 50%. Once you made it to Europe, you’re golden.
The entire point of my comment was to sketch a situation in which it might be reasonable for a bona fide refugee. If you think it’s an implausible situation or that my analysis of the situation is wrong, fair enough, but it’s a bit off just to object on general principles as if I hadn’t just given what is intended to be a counterexample.