Mentioned by Tyler Cowen today as well: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-ball-the-bat-and-the-hopeless.htmlMy reaction is the same as his—I wish they’d incentivized correct answers. I suspect 23% is too high to be pure lizardman ( https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/ ), but it’s still the case that most participation-selection mechanisms will have a lot of people just trying to finish quickly, rather than correctly.
See also drossbucket 2018.
Mentioned by Tyler Cowen today as well: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-ball-the-bat-and-the-hopeless.html
My reaction is the same as his—I wish they’d incentivized correct answers. I suspect 23% is too high to be pure lizardman ( https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/ ), but it’s still the case that most participation-selection mechanisms will have a lot of people just trying to finish quickly, rather than correctly.
See also drossbucket 2018.