That’s fair. How do you explain the in-person respondents? And more than that, the people who answered incorrectly and then were willing to bet money that they were right?
> 16 of the 22 Yale undergraduates who made the common error were sufficiently confident to bet on it, preferring to receive $2 for a correct response than $1 for sure.
That’s a very large proportion! People who are rushing and who know that they are rushing should take the $1. I guess you could claim that that’s not a large enough monetary motivation to induce truthful reflection but.. I think that that’s a big problem all by itself! People in their day-to-day jobs are almost never motivated to put extra thought into making correct decisions to hard problems like these. They’re motivated to put in enough effort to make their boss happy and not get fired and then go home to their spouse and kids. Very few people enjoy these types of problems but everyone encounters them. If someone makes the common error to the bat and ball problem in their daily life, they’ll Maybe lose $5. For most people, intuition is sufficient.
I don’t think that your assertion that humans aren’t this dumb is particularly useful here. Humans definitely do behave this dumbly in their day-to-day lives and that matters quite a lot.
Does it matter a lot? People are screwing up decisions that don’t matter so they can focus on what they actually care about. This has terrible consequences when we take a sum of opinions on complex issues, so I guess that matters.
They’re not screwing up only decisions that don’t matter, they’re also screwing up decisions that don’t matter to them. But many of those decisions matter quite a lot! The entire phenomenon of bike-shedding happens due to people focusing on the wrong things: things that they can trivially and lazily understand. Bike-shedding was first observed and described in the context of people designing nuclear power generating stations.
So in summary, some of the decisions people make are very important. Some of the people making those decisions are screwing them up because they are dumb, with rushing being a contributing but not exclusive factor, a factor that applies just as much in real life as it does in studies.
That’s fair. How do you explain the in-person respondents? And more than that, the people who answered incorrectly and then were willing to bet money that they were right?
> 16 of the 22 Yale undergraduates who made the common error were sufficiently confident to bet on it, preferring to receive $2 for a correct response than $1 for sure.
That’s a very large proportion! People who are rushing and who know that they are rushing should take the $1. I guess you could claim that that’s not a large enough monetary motivation to induce truthful reflection but.. I think that that’s a big problem all by itself! People in their day-to-day jobs are almost never motivated to put extra thought into making correct decisions to hard problems like these. They’re motivated to put in enough effort to make their boss happy and not get fired and then go home to their spouse and kids. Very few people enjoy these types of problems but everyone encounters them.
If someone makes the common error to the bat and ball problem in their daily life, they’ll Maybe lose $5. For most people, intuition is sufficient.
I don’t think that your assertion that humans aren’t this dumb is particularly useful here. Humans definitely do behave this dumbly in their day-to-day lives and that matters quite a lot.
Does it matter a lot? People are screwing up decisions that don’t matter so they can focus on what they actually care about. This has terrible consequences when we take a sum of opinions on complex issues, so I guess that matters.
They’re not screwing up only decisions that don’t matter, they’re also screwing up decisions that don’t matter to them. But many of those decisions matter quite a lot! The entire phenomenon of bike-shedding happens due to people focusing on the wrong things: things that they can trivially and lazily understand. Bike-shedding was first observed and described in the context of people designing nuclear power generating stations.
So in summary, some of the decisions people make are very important. Some of the people making those decisions are screwing them up because they are dumb, with rushing being a contributing but not exclusive factor, a factor that applies just as much in real life as it does in studies.