Why is it legitimate to assume that a singleton would be effective at solving existential risks? A one world government would have all the same internal problems as current governments. The only problems that scaling up would automatically eliminate are those of conflicts between different states, and these would likely be transformed into conflicts between interest groups in one state. This is not a reduction to a solved problem.
There are wars of secession and revolution now. There are also violent conflicts among ethnic and religious groups within one state. There is terrorism. Why would a one world government ruling over a more diverse populace than any current government not have these problems? People won’t automatically accept the singleton any more than they accept the current governments.
Even with unified powers, governments regularly mismanage crises. Current governments (even democratic first world governments) have problems dealing with such things as predictable weather and earthquakes along known fault lines. Why would a one world government be better able to handle much less predictable crises, like a pandemic?
Contrast fishing (an international “commons”) with forestry (a series of national commons). Many countries have successful forestry programs that preserve quite decently; but the devastation caused by overfishing is extreme. These two industries are not fundamentally different, but the fact that one requires international cooperation and the other doesn’t seem to make all the difference. You could also glance at the successful international pollution reductions (eg CFCs and acid rain). A singleton should be able to do better than the painstakingly negotiated treaties of today!
On specifics, the WHO seems to have a pretty decent track record on pandemics (not nearly as good as it should me, much better than it could be). I’m not all that knowledgeable on the various rules governing fissile materials, but they seem to be working acceptably, in any place that they can be enforced. And, of course, regulations of synthetic biology and AI are essentially impossible without a singleton or extreme global coordination.
I don’t think that’s the relevant difference between forestry and fishing. Forestry can be easily parceled out by plot in a way that fishing can’t. Forests can be managed by giving one logging concern responsibility for a specific plot and holding them responsible for any overlogging in that area and for any mandated replanting.
Fishing has to be managed by enforcing quotas, this is a much more difficult problem even for a single government. I haven’t done research in fishing, but do we see fishing being managed well in areas that are under the jurisdiction of one government or governments with good cooperation (like the great lakes)? Or for species that’s habitat is within the coastal waters of one government?
The only problems that scaling up would automatically eliminate are those of conflicts between different states [...]
Historically, those have caused some major problems...
and these would likely be transformed into conflicts between interest groups in one state.
Warring political parties are generally less dangerous than warring nation states. Revolutions can happen, but they aren’t too common—especially in well-designed political systems.
There are as many ways to run a one-world government as there are countries on this Earth today, and possibly more. No single democracy is the same as all the others, and then you get the various dictatorships and plutocracies that hide behind the name…
Even now, a global government is forming from international treaties, fear of nuclear death and terrorism, as well as from trade—it would seem the trend cannot be stopped just by saying one does not want a global government. So, what am I worried about? That the global government that evolves will make my birthplace, the USSR, look like a utopia. The sheer number of USEFUL solutions needed to PERFECT a global government (that is, to create one that we would all agree is competent and beneficial) requires, I think, that we fix up the governments doing the negotiating for a world government FIRST. A good tree is much less likely to produce a bad fruit, to use a Biblical reference. I am not arguing for ignoring world government development, but I would like to point out that scaling up would work a lot better by concentrating on removing issues we see in our governments today...
Why is it legitimate to assume that a singleton would be effective at solving existential risks? A one world government would have all the same internal problems as current governments. The only problems that scaling up would automatically eliminate are those of conflicts between different states, and these would likely be transformed into conflicts between interest groups in one state. This is not a reduction to a solved problem.
There are wars of secession and revolution now. There are also violent conflicts among ethnic and religious groups within one state. There is terrorism. Why would a one world government ruling over a more diverse populace than any current government not have these problems? People won’t automatically accept the singleton any more than they accept the current governments.
Even with unified powers, governments regularly mismanage crises. Current governments (even democratic first world governments) have problems dealing with such things as predictable weather and earthquakes along known fault lines. Why would a one world government be better able to handle much less predictable crises, like a pandemic?
Contrast fishing (an international “commons”) with forestry (a series of national commons). Many countries have successful forestry programs that preserve quite decently; but the devastation caused by overfishing is extreme. These two industries are not fundamentally different, but the fact that one requires international cooperation and the other doesn’t seem to make all the difference. You could also glance at the successful international pollution reductions (eg CFCs and acid rain). A singleton should be able to do better than the painstakingly negotiated treaties of today!
On specifics, the WHO seems to have a pretty decent track record on pandemics (not nearly as good as it should me, much better than it could be). I’m not all that knowledgeable on the various rules governing fissile materials, but they seem to be working acceptably, in any place that they can be enforced. And, of course, regulations of synthetic biology and AI are essentially impossible without a singleton or extreme global coordination.
I don’t think that’s the relevant difference between forestry and fishing. Forestry can be easily parceled out by plot in a way that fishing can’t. Forests can be managed by giving one logging concern responsibility for a specific plot and holding them responsible for any overlogging in that area and for any mandated replanting.
Fishing has to be managed by enforcing quotas, this is a much more difficult problem even for a single government. I haven’t done research in fishing, but do we see fishing being managed well in areas that are under the jurisdiction of one government or governments with good cooperation (like the great lakes)? Or for species that’s habitat is within the coastal waters of one government?
Historically, those have caused some major problems...
Warring political parties are generally less dangerous than warring nation states. Revolutions can happen, but they aren’t too common—especially in well-designed political systems.
There are as many ways to run a one-world government as there are countries on this Earth today, and possibly more. No single democracy is the same as all the others, and then you get the various dictatorships and plutocracies that hide behind the name… Even now, a global government is forming from international treaties, fear of nuclear death and terrorism, as well as from trade—it would seem the trend cannot be stopped just by saying one does not want a global government. So, what am I worried about? That the global government that evolves will make my birthplace, the USSR, look like a utopia. The sheer number of USEFUL solutions needed to PERFECT a global government (that is, to create one that we would all agree is competent and beneficial) requires, I think, that we fix up the governments doing the negotiating for a world government FIRST. A good tree is much less likely to produce a bad fruit, to use a Biblical reference. I am not arguing for ignoring world government development, but I would like to point out that scaling up would work a lot better by concentrating on removing issues we see in our governments today...