In my opinion you are still shying away from discussing radical (although quite plausible) visions. I expect the median good outcome from superintelligence involves everyone being mind uploaded / living in simulations experiencing things that are hard to imagine currently. [emphasis added]
I agree there’s a high chance things end up very wild. I think there’s a lot of uncertainty about what timelines that would happen under; I think Dyson spheres are >10% likely by 2040, but I wouldn’t put them >90% likely by 2100 even conditioning on no radical stagnation scenario (which I’d say are >10% likely on their own). (I mention Dyson spheres because they seem more a raw Kardashev scale progress metric, vs mind uploads which seem more contingent on tech details & choices & economics for whether they happen)
I do think there’s value in discussing the intermediate steps between today and the more radical things. I generally expect progress to be not-ridiculously-unsmooth, so even if the intermediate steps are speedrun fairly quickly in calendar time, I expect us to go through a lot of them.
I think a lot of the things we discuss, like lowered coordination costs, AI being used to improve AI, and humans self-actualising, will continue to be important dynamics even into the very radical futures.
Regarding:
I agree there’s a high chance things end up very wild. I think there’s a lot of uncertainty about what timelines that would happen under; I think Dyson spheres are >10% likely by 2040, but I wouldn’t put them >90% likely by 2100 even conditioning on no radical stagnation scenario (which I’d say are >10% likely on their own). (I mention Dyson spheres because they seem more a raw Kardashev scale progress metric, vs mind uploads which seem more contingent on tech details & choices & economics for whether they happen)
I do think there’s value in discussing the intermediate steps between today and the more radical things. I generally expect progress to be not-ridiculously-unsmooth, so even if the intermediate steps are speedrun fairly quickly in calendar time, I expect us to go through a lot of them.
I think a lot of the things we discuss, like lowered coordination costs, AI being used to improve AI, and humans self-actualising, will continue to be important dynamics even into the very radical futures.