Is there anything more to it than “hmm, we need a date that’s distant enough to not strain plausibility but close enough that most people expect to still be alive”.
Projecting his double exponential growth of computer hardware he gets total computations by computers exceeding computations in human brains (using his estimate) by a factor of a billion around then I think.
It is one of the more common times for the Singularity. Timtyler made a graph a while ago of Singularity claims and I think that the mean was around 2040. I suspect that you’ve hit part of what is going on, as well as general wishful thinking. This SMBC seems relevant.
Does anyone know where the 2045 figure came from?
Is there anything more to it than “hmm, we need a date that’s distant enough to not strain plausibility but close enough that most people expect to still be alive”.
The exact number is Kurzweil’s predicted date from his book “The Singularity is Near.”
Well, I suppose that answer’s the question of why the facebook group uses it.
Any idea why Kurzweil chose it? Was there any kind of quantitative thinking involved?
I’m not accusing anyone, its a question that currently leaves me puzzled, so I’d be interested in seeing if he has any kind of justification.
Projecting his double exponential growth of computer hardware he gets total computations by computers exceeding computations in human brains (using his estimate) by a factor of a billion around then I think.
Thanks, I’ll have to look into it further.
It is one of the more common times for the Singularity. Timtyler made a graph a while ago of Singularity claims and I think that the mean was around 2040. I suspect that you’ve hit part of what is going on, as well as general wishful thinking. This SMBC seems relevant.