Somewhere I read that a big reason IQ tests aren’t all that popular is because when they were first introduced, lots of intellectuals took them and didn’t score all that high. I’m hoping prediction markets don’t meet a similar fate.
There’s a funny thing about new signaling mechanisms.
If they disagree with old ones, then at least some people who did well in the old ones will complain (loudly).
If they perfectly agree with old ones, then they provide no evaluative value.
In general, introducing new signaling mechanisms is challenging, very much for this reason.
If they can last though, then eventually those in power will be ones who did well on them, so these people will champion them vs. future endeavors. So they can have lasting lock-in. It’s more of a reason to work hard to get them right.
Somewhere I read that a big reason IQ tests aren’t all that popular is because when they were first introduced, lots of intellectuals took them and didn’t score all that high. I’m hoping prediction markets don’t meet a similar fate.
There’s a funny thing about new signaling mechanisms.
If they disagree with old ones, then at least some people who did well in the old ones will complain (loudly).
If they perfectly agree with old ones, then they provide no evaluative value.
In general, introducing new signaling mechanisms is challenging, very much for this reason.
If they can last though, then eventually those in power will be ones who did well on them, so these people will champion them vs. future endeavors. So they can have lasting lock-in. It’s more of a reason to work hard to get them right.
Relatedly, the term “superforecasting” is already politicized to death in the UK.