But if results depend on my ability to convince rich people, that’s not prediction market!
what!? Why not?
Suppose the situation were that taw could make bets on the terms he wishes for—but only if he can convince 5 out of 9 rich people. How is this a market, and not some sort of bizarre committee or bureaucracy?
If I think I know a more efficient way to make a widget, I still need to convince somebody to put up the capital for my new widget factory.
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what!? Why not?
Suppose the situation were that taw could make bets on the terms he wishes for—but only if he can convince 5 out of 9 rich people. How is this a market, and not some sort of bizarre committee or bureaucracy?
If I think I know a more efficient way to make a widget, I still need to convince somebody to put up the capital for my new widget factory.