I continue to think that if your model is that capabilities follow an exponential (i.e. dC/dt = kC), then there is nothing to be gained by thinking about compounding. You just estimate how much time it would have taken for the rest of the field to make an equal amount of capabilities progress now. That’s the amount you shortened timelines by; there’s no change from compounding effects.
if you make a discovery now worth 2 billion dollars [...] If you make this 2 billion dollar discovery later
Two responses:
Why are you measuring value in dollars? That is both (a) a weird metric to use and (b) not the one you had on your graph.
Why does the discovery have the same value now vs later?
I continue to think that if your model is that capabilities follow an exponential (i.e. dC/dt = kC), then there is nothing to be gained by thinking about compounding. You just estimate how much time it would have taken for the rest of the field to make an equal amount of capabilities progress now. That’s the amount you shortened timelines by; there’s no change from compounding effects.
Two responses:
Why are you measuring value in dollars? That is both (a) a weird metric to use and (b) not the one you had on your graph.
Why does the discovery have the same value now vs later?