If judgement day comes and I see the world burning around me, I will probably first think that I’ve gone insane; but the probability I assign to theism will increase, as per Bayes’ Theorem.
Where the probability at the moment? How high would it rise for experiencing 1 hour of judgment day, the world burning around you?
Technically, only the fact that the world started burning is significant. That a big fire continues to burn for 1 hour, that is not so surprising; unless the fire is violating the known laws of physics in some other ways.
If your explanation for the fire is that you got insane and see hallucinations, than the amount of time you keep perceiving those hallucinations might matter.
The continuation of the burning makes the hallucination hypothesis less probable, for as long as it continues. Also, if it continues past the laws of physics, as you point out.
I don’t have enough experience to even give an order of magnitude, but maybe I can give an order of magnitude of the order of magnitude:
Right now, the probability of Christianity specifically might be somewhere around 0.0000001% (that’s probably too high even). One hour post judgement-day, it might rise to somewhere around 0.001% (several orders of magnitude).
Now let’s say the world continues to burn, I see angels in the sky, get to talk to some of them, see dead relatives (who have information that allows me to verify that they’re not my own hallucinations), and so on...the probability could bring the hypothesis to one of the top spots in the ranking of plausible explanations.
...assuming that I’m still free to experiment with reality and not chained and burning. Also assuming that I actually take the time to do this as opposed to run and hide.
Where the probability at the moment? How high would it rise for experiencing 1 hour of judgment day, the world burning around you?
Technically, only the fact that the world started burning is significant. That a big fire continues to burn for 1 hour, that is not so surprising; unless the fire is violating the known laws of physics in some other ways.
If your explanation for the fire is that you got insane and see hallucinations, than the amount of time you keep perceiving those hallucinations might matter.
The continuation of the burning makes the hallucination hypothesis less probable, for as long as it continues. Also, if it continues past the laws of physics, as you point out.
I don’t have enough experience to even give an order of magnitude, but maybe I can give an order of magnitude of the order of magnitude:
Right now, the probability of Christianity specifically might be somewhere around 0.0000001% (that’s probably too high even). One hour post judgement-day, it might rise to somewhere around 0.001% (several orders of magnitude).
Now let’s say the world continues to burn, I see angels in the sky, get to talk to some of them, see dead relatives (who have information that allows me to verify that they’re not my own hallucinations), and so on...the probability could bring the hypothesis to one of the top spots in the ranking of plausible explanations.
...assuming that I’m still free to experiment with reality and not chained and burning. Also assuming that I actually take the time to do this as opposed to run and hide.