Absolutely, and thanks for the link. That was fantastic. Using a Venn diagram occurred to me, but I hadn’t worked out exactly how to use it.
The one thing I will say about this is that I like the idea that using something (e.g. a test) tangible on the individuals or objects contributes to the idea that the new evidence is adding something to the pre-existing knowledge. The Venn diagram shows quite clearly what the final result was, but I like the idea that you’re gathering more information, which contributes to the body of knowledge, and that this is what alone allows you to update/slide your estimate.
In the Venn diagram, they just start drawing circles and that’s that.
In this one, it’s a little more clear (at least to me) that the test is doing different things depending on who is being tested and that this is what creates the end inequality between cancer and non-cancer positive tests.
Does that make sense?
Thanks again for sharing. Honestly, I don’t see these visualizations as one size fits all; the more who contribute or popularize the various tools out there, the better everyone is!
Thanks for the post, but I think this Venn Diagram style visualization of the problem is way more intuitive.
http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/
Absolutely, and thanks for the link. That was fantastic. Using a Venn diagram occurred to me, but I hadn’t worked out exactly how to use it.
The one thing I will say about this is that I like the idea that using something (e.g. a test) tangible on the individuals or objects contributes to the idea that the new evidence is adding something to the pre-existing knowledge. The Venn diagram shows quite clearly what the final result was, but I like the idea that you’re gathering more information, which contributes to the body of knowledge, and that this is what alone allows you to update/slide your estimate.
In the Venn diagram, they just start drawing circles and that’s that.
In this one, it’s a little more clear (at least to me) that the test is doing different things depending on who is being tested and that this is what creates the end inequality between cancer and non-cancer positive tests.
Does that make sense?
Thanks again for sharing. Honestly, I don’t see these visualizations as one size fits all; the more who contribute or popularize the various tools out there, the better everyone is!