If you have big communities working on math, I don’t think you will see improvements like 1000x model size (the bigger the community, the harder it will be to get any fixed size of advantage). And I think you will have big communities working on the problem well before it becomes a big deal economically (the bigger the economic deal, the bigger the community). Both of those are quantitative and imperfect and uncertain, but I think they are pretty important rules of thumb for making sense of what happens in the world.
Regarding the IMO disagreement, I think it’s very plausible the IMO will be solved before there is a giant community. So that’s more of a claim that even now, with not many people working on it, you probably aren’t going to get progress that fast. I don’t feel like this speaks to either the two main disagreements with Eliezer, but it does speak to something like “How often do we see jumps that look big to Paul?” where I’m claiming that I have a better sense for what improvements are “surprisingly big.”
If you have big communities working on math, I don’t think you will see improvements like 1000x model size (the bigger the community, the harder it will be to get any fixed size of advantage). And I think you will have big communities working on the problem well before it becomes a big deal economically (the bigger the economic deal, the bigger the community). Both of those are quantitative and imperfect and uncertain, but I think they are pretty important rules of thumb for making sense of what happens in the world.
Regarding the IMO disagreement, I think it’s very plausible the IMO will be solved before there is a giant community. So that’s more of a claim that even now, with not many people working on it, you probably aren’t going to get progress that fast. I don’t feel like this speaks to either the two main disagreements with Eliezer, but it does speak to something like “How often do we see jumps that look big to Paul?” where I’m claiming that I have a better sense for what improvements are “surprisingly big.”