you can see where a cannonball will land without simulating the cannonball.
To predict with any degree of accuracy where a cannonball will land, I’m going to need to know the muzzle velocity, angle, and elevation of the cannon, and then I’m going to need to mathematically simulate the cannon firing. If I want to be more confident or more accurate, I’m also going to need to know the shape, size, and mass of the cannonball; and the current weather conditions; and I’m going to need to simulate the cannon’s firing in more detail.
If I wanted to predict anything about a chaotic system, like the color of an arbitrary pixel in a gigapixel rendering of the Mandelbrot Set, I’d need to do a much finer-grained simulation—even if I’m just looking for a yes/no answer.
To get an answer from a particular decision theory, Omega is going to have to do the functional equivalent of lying to that decision theory—tracing its execution path along a particular branch which corresponds to a statement from Omega that is not veridical. I don’t think we can say whether that simulation is detailed enough to be consciously aware of the lie, but I don’t think that’s what’s being asked.
To predict with any degree of accuracy where a cannonball will land, I’m going to need to know the muzzle velocity, angle, and elevation of the cannon, and then I’m going to need to mathematically simulate the cannon firing.
No, you really don’t. LCPW please. The cannonball is flying unrestricted through the air in an eastwardly direction and will impact a giant tub of jello.
To predict with any degree of accuracy where a cannonball will land, I’m going to need to know the muzzle velocity, angle, and elevation of the cannon, and then I’m going to need to mathematically simulate the cannon firing. If I want to be more confident or more accurate, I’m also going to need to know the shape, size, and mass of the cannonball; and the current weather conditions; and I’m going to need to simulate the cannon’s firing in more detail.
If I wanted to predict anything about a chaotic system, like the color of an arbitrary pixel in a gigapixel rendering of the Mandelbrot Set, I’d need to do a much finer-grained simulation—even if I’m just looking for a yes/no answer.
To get an answer from a particular decision theory, Omega is going to have to do the functional equivalent of lying to that decision theory—tracing its execution path along a particular branch which corresponds to a statement from Omega that is not veridical. I don’t think we can say whether that simulation is detailed enough to be consciously aware of the lie, but I don’t think that’s what’s being asked.
No, you really don’t. LCPW please. The cannonball is flying unrestricted through the air in an eastwardly direction and will impact a giant tub of jello.