Regarding your final paragraph: Is your take on the debate between Robin and Eli about “Foom” that all Robin was saying boils down to “la la la I can’t hear you” ?
I recall getting a distinct impression from Robin which I could caricature as “lalala you’re biased with hero-epic story.”
I also recall Eliezer asking for a probability breakdown, and I don’t think Robin provided it.
I recall getting a distinct impression from Robin which I could caricature as “lalala you’re biased with hero-epic story.”
… and closely related: “I’m an Impressive Economist. If you don’t just take my word for it you are arrogant.”
In what I took to be an insightful comment by Eliezer in the aftermath of the debate Eliezer noted that he and Robin seemed to have fundamental disagreement about what should be taken as good evidence. This lead into posts about ‘outside view’, ‘superficial similarities’ and ‘reference class tennis’. (And conceivably had something to do with priming the thoughts behind ‘status and stupidity’ although I would never presume that was primarily or significantly directed at Robin.)
I recall getting a distinct impression from Robin which I could caricature as “lalala you’re biased with hero-epic story.”
I also recall Eliezer asking for a probability breakdown, and I don’t think Robin provided it.
… and closely related: “I’m an Impressive Economist. If you don’t just take my word for it you are arrogant.”
In what I took to be an insightful comment by Eliezer in the aftermath of the debate Eliezer noted that he and Robin seemed to have fundamental disagreement about what should be taken as good evidence. This lead into posts about ‘outside view’, ‘superficial similarities’ and ‘reference class tennis’. (And conceivably had something to do with priming the thoughts behind ‘status and stupidity’ although I would never presume that was primarily or significantly directed at Robin.)